

****************************************************************************
*** From Thin to Thick Representation: How a Female President Shapes Female Parliamentary Behavior
*** American Political Science Review
*** Michael Wahman, Nikolaos Frantzeskakis, and Tevfik Murat Yildirim
*** Replication Files
*** Date: January 23, 2021
****************************************************************************


clear all
use "MalawiDiscourses_replication.dta", clear

run "scheme.do"

graph set window fontface MinionPro-Subh
grstyle init
grstyle set color black
local display msize(medsmall) lwidth(vvthin) grid(none) ylabel(, noticks)
local ci ciopts(lwidth(vthin medthin) lcolor(black%50 black%100)) citop



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*** Table A1: Main Models
* Hypothesis 1: speech count
zinb MPspeechCount i.banda##i.female senior Newcomer DPP PP MCP indep month0 c.month0#c.month0 if ParSession == 3, inflate(i.banda##i.female senior Newcomer  DPP PP MCP indep month0 c.month0#c.month0) cluster(Name_x)
estat ic

*** simulations
margins banda#female, at (senior = 0 Newcomer==1 indep = 0)
marginsplot, horizontal unique xline(0)  recast(scatter) yscale(range(-1 2)) xscale(range(-1 10)) graphregion(color(white)) bgcolor(white) ytitle("") aspectratio(1) name("h1_margins_zero") title("Predictive margins of Banda over Female" "for all speeches") 

margins r.banda@female, at (senior = 0 Newcomer==1  indep = 0)
marginsplot, horizontal unique xline(0)  recast(scatter) yscale(range(-1 2)) xscale(range(-1 2)) graphregion(color(white)) bgcolor(white) ytitle("") aspectratio(1) name("h1_dif_zero_bf") title("First Differences between governments" "for all speeches") 

margins r.female@banda, at (senior = 0 Newcomer==1  indep = 0)
marginsplot, horizontal unique xline(0)  recast(scatter) yscale(range(-1 2)) xscale(range(-1 2)) graphregion(color(white)) bgcolor(white) ytitle("") aspectratio(1) name("h1_dif_zero") title("First Differences between genders" "for all speeches") 


* Hypothesis 2: economy
zinb economy i.banda##i.female senior Newcomer finance_com DPP PP MCP indep month0 c.month0#c.month0 if ParSession == 3, inflate(i.banda##i.female senior Newcomer finance_com DPP PP MCP indep month0 c.month0#c.month0) cluster(Name_x)
estat ic

*** simulations
margins banda#female, at (senior = 0 Newcomer==1  indep = 0)
marginsplot, horizontal unique xline(0)  recast(scatter) yscale(range(-1 2)) xscale(range(-0.2 1.5)) graphregion(color(white)) bgcolor(white) ytitle("") ytitle("") aspectratio(1) name("h2_margins_zero") title("Predictive margins of Banda over Female" "for speeches on the economy")

margins r.banda@female, at (senior = 0 Newcomer==1  indep = 0)
marginsplot, horizontal unique xline(0)  recast(scatter) yscale(range(-1 2)) xscale(range(-0.2 1)) graphregion(color(white)) bgcolor(white) ytitle("") aspectratio(1) name("h2_dif_zero_bf") title("First Differences between governments" "for speeches on the economy") 

margins r.female@banda, at (senior = 0 Newcomer==1  indep = 0)
marginsplot, horizontal unique xline(0)  recast(scatter) yscale(range(-1 2)) xscale(range(-1 0.5)) graphregion(color(white)) bgcolor(white) ytitle("") ytitle("") aspectratio(1) name("h2_dif_zero") title("First Differences between genders" "for speeches on the economy")

*** Figure 3: Simulations Main Analysis
gr combine h1_margins_zero h1_dif_zero_bf h1_dif_zero h2_margins_zero h2_dif_zero_bf h2_dif_zero, iscale(0.5) graphregion(color(white)) title("") note("			Note: The 95% confidence intervals are included")



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*** Table A2: Word count as dependent variable
* H1
zinb wordCount i.banda##i.female senior Newcomer DPP PP MCP indep month0 c.month0#c.month0 if ParSession == 3, inflate(i.banda##i.female senior Newcomer  DPP PP MCP indep month0 c.month0#c.month0) cluster(Name_x)
estat ic

*** simulations
margins banda#female, at (senior = 0 Newcomer==1 indep = 0)
marginsplot, horizontal unique xline(0)  recast(scatter) yscale(range(-1 2)) xscale(range(-1 2)) graphregion(color(white)) bgcolor(white) ytitle("") ytitle("") aspectratio(1) name("word_margins") title("Predictive margins of Banda over Female" "for all speeches") 


margins r.banda@female, at (senior = 0 Newcomer==1 indep = 0)
marginsplot, horizontal unique xline(0)  recast(scatter) yscale(range(-1 2)) xscale(range(-1 2)) graphregion(color(white)) bgcolor(white) ytitle("") aspectratio(1) name("word_dif_bf") title("First Differences between governments" "for all speeches") 


margins r.female@banda, at (senior = 0 Newcomer==1 indep = 0)
marginsplot, horizontal unique xline(0)  recast(scatter) yscale(range(-1 2)) xscale(range(-1 2)) graphregion(color(white)) bgcolor(white) ytitle("") ytitle("") aspectratio(1) name("word_dif") title("First Differences between genders" "for all speeches") 



* H2
zinb econ_words i.banda##i.female senior Newcomer finance_com DPP PP MCP indep month0 c.month0#c.month0 if ParSession == 3, inflate(i.banda##i.female senior Newcomer finance_com DPP PP MCP indep month0 c.month0#c.month0) cluster(Name_x)
estat ic

*** simulations
margins banda#female, at (senior = 0 Newcomer==1 indep = 0)
marginsplot, horizontal unique xline(0)  recast(scatter) yscale(range(-1 2)) xscale(range(-1 2)) graphregion(color(white)) bgcolor(white) ytitle("") ytitle("") aspectratio(1) name("word_margins_h2") title("Predictive margins of Banda over Female" "for speeches on the economy")  

margins r.banda@female, at (senior = 0 Newcomer==1 indep = 0)
marginsplot, horizontal unique xline(0)  recast(scatter) yscale(range(-1 2)) xscale(range(-1 2)) graphregion(color(white)) bgcolor(white) ytitle("") aspectratio(1) name("word_dif_bf_h2") title("First Differences between governments" "for speeches on the economy") 

margins r.female@banda, at (senior = 0 Newcomer==1 indep = 0)
marginsplot, horizontal unique xline(0)  recast(scatter) yscale(range(-1 2)) xscale(range(-1 2)) graphregion(color(white)) bgcolor(white) ytitle("") ytitle("") aspectratio(1) name("word_dif_h2") title("First Differences between genders" "for speeches on the economy")


*** Figure A2: Predictive Margins for Main Models Using Number of Words as Dependent Variable
gr combine word_margins word_dif_bf word_dif word_margins_h2 word_dif_bf_h2 word_dif_h2, iscale(0.5) graphregion(color(white)) title("") note("			Note: The 95% confidence intervals are included")





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*** Table A3: Comparing first Mutharika term (2004) to the 1999 parliament
* H1
zinb MPspeechCount i.ParSession##i.female senior Newcomer indep month0 c.month0#c.month0 if ParSession < 3, inflate(i.ParSession##i.female senior Newcomer indep month0 c.month0#c.month0) cluster(Name_x)
estat ic

*** simulations
margins ParSession#female, at (senior = 0 Newcomer==1 indep = 0)
marginsplot, horizontal unique xline(0)  recast(scatter) yscale(range(0 3)) xscale(range(-1 2)) graphregion(color(white)) bgcolor(white) ytitle("") aspectratio(1) name("h1_margins_muth1") title("Predictive margins of Mutharika over Female" "for all speeches") 

margins r.ParSession@female, at (senior = 0 Newcomer==1 indep = 0)
marginsplot, horizontal unique xline(0)  recast(scatter) yscale(range(-1 2)) xscale(range(-1 2)) graphregion(color(white)) bgcolor(white) ytitle("") aspectratio(1) name("h1_dif_muth1_bf") title("First Differences between governments" "for all speeches") 

margins r.female@ParSession, at (senior = 0 Newcomer==1 indep = 0)
marginsplot, horizontal unique xline(0)  recast(scatter) yscale(range(0 3)) xscale(range(-1 2)) graphregion(color(white)) bgcolor(white) ytitle("") aspectratio(1) name("h1_dif_muth1") title("First Differences between genders" "for all speeches") 


* H2
zinb economy i.ParSession##i.female senior Newcomer indep month0 c.month0#c.month0 if ParSession < 3, inflate(i.ParSession##i.female senior Newcomer indep month0 c.month0#c.month0) cluster(Name_x)
estat ic



*** simulations
margins ParSession#female, at (senior = 0 Newcomer==1 indep = 0)
marginsplot, horizontal unique xline(0)  recast(scatter) yscale(range(0 3)) xscale(range(-0.5 1.5)) graphregion(color(white)) bgcolor(white) ytitle("") ytitle("") aspectratio(1) name("h2_margins_muth1") title("Predictive margins of Mutharika over Female" "for speeches on the economy")

margins r.ParSession@female, at (senior = 0 Newcomer==1 indep = 0)
marginsplot, horizontal unique xline(0)  recast(scatter) yscale(range(-1 2)) xscale(range(-0.2 1)) graphregion(color(white)) bgcolor(white) ytitle("") aspectratio(1) name("h2_dif_muth1_bf") title("First Differences between governments" "for speeches on the economy") 

margins r.female@ParSession, at (senior = 0 Newcomer==1 indep = 0)
marginsplot, horizontal unique xline(0)  recast(scatter) yscale(range(0 3)) xscale(range(-1 0.8)) graphregion(color(white)) bgcolor(white) ytitle("") ytitle("") aspectratio(1) name("h2_dif_muth1") title("First Differences between genders" "for speeches on the economy")


*** Figure 4: Difference between Muluzi and Mutharika Period
gr combine h1_margins_muth1 h1_dif_muth1_bf h1_dif_muth1 h2_margins_muth1 h2_dif_muth1_bf h2_dif_muth1, iscale(0.5) graphregion(color(white)) title("") note("			Note: The 95% confidence intervals are included")



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*** Table A4: Newcomer MPs at second half of parliamentary terms (1999, 2004)
* H1
zinb MPspeechCount i.second_half##i.female##Newcomer senior indep month0 c.month0#c.month0 if ParSession < 3, inflate(i.second_half##i.female##Newcomer senior indep month0 c.month0#c.month0) cluster(Name_x)
estat ic

*** simulations
margins second_half#female, at (senior = 0 Newcomer==1 indep = 0)
marginsplot, horizontal unique xline(0)  recast(scatter) yscale(range(-1 2)) xscale(range(-1 2)) graphregion(color(white)) bgcolor(white) ytitle("") aspectratio(1) name("h1_margins_second_half") title("Predictive margins of Second half over Female" "for all speeches") 

margins r.second_half@female, at (senior = 0 Newcomer==1 indep = 0)
marginsplot, horizontal unique xline(0)  recast(scatter) yscale(range(-1 2)) xscale(range(-1 2)) graphregion(color(white)) bgcolor(white) ytitle("") aspectratio(1) name("h1_dif_second_half_bf") title("First Differences between governments" "for all speeches") 

margins r.female@second_half, at (senior = 0 Newcomer==1 indep = 0)
marginsplot, horizontal unique xline(0)  recast(scatter) yscale(range(-1 2)) xscale(range(-1 2)) graphregion(color(white)) bgcolor(white) ytitle("") aspectratio(1) name("h1_dif_second_half") title("First Differences between genders" "for all speeches") 


* H2
zinb economy i.second_half##i.female##Newcomer senior indep month0 c.month0#c.month0 if ParSession < 3, inflate(i.second_half##i.female##Newcomer senior indep month0 c.month0#c.month0) cluster(Name_x)
estat ic

*** simulations
margins second_half#female, at (senior = 0 Newcomer==1 indep = 0)
marginsplot, horizontal unique xline(0)  recast(scatter) yscale(range(-1 2)) xscale(range(-0.5 2)) graphregion(color(white)) bgcolor(white) ytitle("") aspectratio(1) name("h2_margins_second_half") title("Predictive margins of Second half over Female" "for speeches on the economy")  

margins r.second_half@female, at (senior = 0 Newcomer==1 indep = 0)
marginsplot, horizontal unique xline(0)  recast(scatter) yscale(range(-1 2)) xscale(range(-1.5 0.5)) graphregion(color(white)) bgcolor(white) ytitle("") aspectratio(1) name("h2_dif_second_half_bf") title("First Differences between governments" "for speeches on the economy") 

margins r.female@second_half, at (senior = 0 Newcomer==1 indep = 0)
marginsplot, horizontal unique xline(0)  recast(scatter) yscale(range(-1 2)) graphregion(color(white)) bgcolor(white) ytitle("") aspectratio(1) name("h2_dif_second_half")  title("First Differences between genders" "for speeches on the economy")

*** Figure 5: Difference early and late in Muluzi and Mutharika I parliamentary terms
gr combine h1_margins_second_half h1_dif_second_half_bf h1_dif_second_half h2_margins_second_half h2_dif_second_half_bf h2_dif_second_half, iscale(0.5) graphregion(color(white))  title("") note("			Note: The 95% confidence intervals are included")





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*** Table A5: Main models without PP members
* H1
zinb MPspeechCount i.banda##i.female senior Newcomer DPP MCP indep month0 c.month0#c.month0 if ParSession == 3 & PP == 0, inflate(i.banda##i.female senior Newcomer  DPP PP MCP indep month0 c.month0#c.month0) cluster(Name_x)
estat ic


*** simulations
margins banda#female, at (senior = 0 Newcomer==1 indep = 0)
marginsplot, horizontal unique xline(0)  recast(scatter) yscale(range(-1 2)) xscale(range(-1 10)) graphregion(color(white)) bgcolor(white) ytitle("") aspectratio(1) name("no_PP_margins_zero") title("Predictive margins of Banda over Female" "for all speeches") 

margins r.banda@female, at (senior = 0 Newcomer==1  indep = 0)
marginsplot, horizontal unique xline(0)  recast(scatter) yscale(range(-1 2)) xscale(range(-1 2)) graphregion(color(white)) bgcolor(white) ytitle("") aspectratio(1) name("no_PP_dif_zero_bf") title("First Differences between governments" "for all speeches") 

margins r.female@banda, at (senior = 0 Newcomer==1  indep = 0)
marginsplot, horizontal unique xline(0)  recast(scatter) yscale(range(-1 2)) xscale(range(-1 2)) graphregion(color(white)) bgcolor(white) ytitle("") aspectratio(1) name("no_PP_dif_zero") title("First Differences between genders" "for all speeches") 


* H2
zinb economy i.banda##i.female senior Newcomer finance_com DPP MCP indep month0 c.month0#c.month0 if ParSession == 3 & PP == 0, inflate(i.banda##i.female senior Newcomer finance_com DPP PP MCP indep month0 c.month0#c.month0) cluster(Name_x)
estat ic


*** simulations
margins banda#female, at (senior = 0 Newcomer==1  indep = 0)
marginsplot, horizontal unique xline(0)  recast(scatter) yscale(range(-1 2)) xscale(range(-0.2 1.5)) graphregion(color(white)) bgcolor(white) ytitle("") ytitle("") aspectratio(1) name("no_PP_H2_margins_zero") title("Predictive margins of Banda over Female" "for speeches on the economy")

margins r.banda@female, at (senior = 0 Newcomer==1  indep = 0)
marginsplot, horizontal unique xline(0)  recast(scatter) yscale(range(-1 2)) xscale(range(-0.2 1)) graphregion(color(white)) bgcolor(white) ytitle("") aspectratio(1) name("no_PP_H2_dif_zero_bf") title("First Differences between governments" "for speeches on the economy") 

margins r.female@banda, at (senior = 0 Newcomer==1  indep = 0)
marginsplot, horizontal unique xline(0)  recast(scatter) yscale(range(-1 2)) xscale(range(-1 0.5)) graphregion(color(white)) bgcolor(white) ytitle("") ytitle("") aspectratio(1) name("no_PP_H2_dif_zero") title("First Differences between genders" "for speeches on the economy")



*** Figure 6: Predictive Margins for Main Models after dropping PP members
gr combine no_PP_margins_zero no_PP_dif_zero_bf no_PP_dif_zero no_PP_H2_margins_zero no_PP_H2_dif_zero_bf no_PP_H2_dif_zero, iscale(0.5) graphregion(color(white)) title("") note("			Note: The 95% confidence intervals are included")



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*** Table A6: Effects of Democratic Backsliding on MP's Speech Rate
* H1
zinb MPspeechCount i.backsliding##i.female senior Newcomer indep month0 c.month0#c.month0 if ParSession == 1, inflate(i.backsliding##i.female senior Newcomer indep month0 c.month0#c.month0) cluster(Name_x)
estat ic

*** simulations
margins backsliding#female, at (senior = 0 Newcomer==1 indep = 0)
marginsplot, horizontal unique xline(0)  recast(scatter) yscale(range(-1 2)) xscale(range(-1 2)) graphregion(color(white)) bgcolor(white) ytitle("") aspectratio(1) name("h1_margins_back")  title("Predictive margins of Backsliding over Female" "for all speeches") 

margins r.backsliding@female, at (senior = 0 Newcomer==1 indep = 0)
marginsplot, horizontal unique xline(0)  recast(scatter) yscale(range(-1 2)) graphregion(color(white)) bgcolor(white) ytitle("") aspectratio(1) name("h1_dif_back_bf") title("First Differences between governments" "for all speeches")

margins r.female@backsliding, at (senior = 0 Newcomer==1 indep = 0)
marginsplot, horizontal unique xline(0)  recast(scatter) yscale(range(-1 2)) graphregion(color(white)) bgcolor(white) ytitle("") aspectratio(1) name("h1_dif_back") title("First Differences between genders" "for all speeches") 


* h2
zinb economy i.backsliding##i.female senior Newcomer indep month0 c.month0#c.month0 if ParSession == 1, inflate(i.backsliding##i.female senior Newcomer indep month0 c.month0#c.month0) cluster(Name_x)
estat ic

*** simulations
margins backsliding#female, at (senior = 0 Newcomer==1 indep = 0)
marginsplot, horizontal unique xline(0)  recast(scatter) yscale(range(-1 2)) xscale(range(-0.3 2)) graphregion(color(white)) bgcolor(white) ytitle("") aspectratio(1) name("h2_margins_back") title("Predictive margins of Backsliding over Female" "for speeches on the economy")  

margins r.backsliding@female, at (senior = 0 Newcomer==1 indep = 0)
marginsplot, horizontal unique xline(0)  recast(scatter) yscale(range(-1 2)) xscale(range(-1.5 0.5)) graphregion(color(white)) bgcolor(white) ytitle("") aspectratio(1) name("h2_dif_back_bf") title("First Differences between governments" "for speeches on the economy")

margins r.female@backsliding, at (senior = 0 Newcomer==1 indep = 0)
marginsplot, horizontal unique xline(0)  recast(scatter) yscale(range(-1 2)) xscale(range(-1.5 1)) graphregion(color(white)) bgcolor(white) ytitle("") aspectratio(1) name("h2_dif_back") title("First Differences between genders" "for speeches on the economy")


*** Figure 8: Difference between the democratic stability and democratic erosion period in the Muluzi regime
gr combine h1_margins_back h1_dif_back_bf h1_dif_back h2_margins_back h2_dif_back_bf h2_dif_back, iscale(0.5) graphregion(color(white)) title("") note("			Note: The 95% confidence intervals are included")




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*** Table A7: Effects of Cash Gate Scandal on MP's Speech Rate
* H1
zinb MPspeechCount i.cashgate##i.female senior Newcomer DPP PP MCP indep month0 c.month0#c.month0 if banda == 1, inflate(i.cashgate##i.female senior Newcomer  DPP PP MCP indep month0) cluster(Name_x)
estat ic

*** simulations
margins cashgate#female, at (senior = 0 Newcomer==1 indep = 0)
marginsplot, horizontal unique xline(0)  recast(scatter) yscale(range(-1 2)) xscale(range(-1 2)) graphregion(color(white)) bgcolor(white) ytitle("") aspectratio(1) name("h1_margins_zero_cash") title("Predictive margins of Cash Gate over Female" "for all speeches") 

margins r.cashgate@female, at (senior = 0 Newcomer==1  indep = 0)
marginsplot, horizontal unique xline(0)  recast(scatter) yscale(range(-1 2)) xscale(range(-1 2)) graphregion(color(white)) bgcolor(white) ytitle("") aspectratio(1) name("h1_dif_zero_bf_cash") title("First Differences between periods" "for all speeches") 

margins r.female@cashgate, at (senior = 0 Newcomer==1  indep = 0)
marginsplot, horizontal unique xline(0)  recast(scatter) yscale(range(-1 2)) xscale(range(-1 2)) graphregion(color(white)) bgcolor(white) ytitle("") aspectratio(1) name("h1_dif_zero_cash") title("First Differences between genders" "for all speeches") 


* H2
zinb economy i.cashgate##i.female senior Newcomer finance_com DPP PP MCP indep month0 c.month0#c.month0 if banda == 1, inflate(i.cashgate##i.female senior Newcomer finance_com DPP PP MCP indep month0) cluster(Name_x)
estat ic

*** simulations
margins cashgate#female, at (senior = 0 Newcomer==1  indep = 0)
marginsplot, horizontal unique xline(0)  recast(scatter) yscale(range(-1 2)) xscale(range(-0.2 2)) graphregion(color(white)) bgcolor(white) ytitle("") ytitle("") aspectratio(1) name("h2_margins_zero_cash") title("Predictive margins of Cash Gate over Female" "for speeches on the economy")

margins r.cashgate@female, at (senior = 0 Newcomer==1  indep = 0)
marginsplot, horizontal unique xline(0)  recast(scatter) yscale(range(-1 2)) xscale(range(-1 0.5)) graphregion(color(white)) bgcolor(white) ytitle("") aspectratio(1) name("h2_dif_zero_bf_cash") title("First Differences between periods" "for speeches on the economy") 

margins r.female@cashgate, at (senior = 0 Newcomer==1  indep = 0)
marginsplot, horizontal unique xline(0)  recast(scatter) yscale(range(-1 2)) xscale(range(-1 0.5)) graphregion(color(white)) bgcolor(white) ytitle("") ytitle("") aspectratio(1) name("h2_dif_zero_cash") title("First Differences between genders" "for speeches on the economy")


*** Figure 6: Difference between the Pre- and Post-Cashgate period in the Banda regime
gr combine h1_margins_zero_cash h1_dif_zero_bf_cash h1_dif_zero_cash h2_margins_zero_cash h2_dif_zero_bf_cash h2_dif_zero_cash, iscale(0.5) graphregion(color(white)) title("") note("			Note: The 95% confidence intervals are included")



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*** Table A8: The Effects of Banda on the Most Frequent Topics

* Government Operations
zinb Topic20 i.banda##i.female senior Newcomer DPP PP MCP indep month0 c.month0#c.month0 if ParSession == 3, inflate(i.banda##i.female senior Newcomer DPP PP MCP indep month0 c.month0#c.month0) cluster(Name_x)
estat ic

*** simulations
margins banda#female, at (senior = 0 Newcomer==1  indep = 0)
marginsplot, horizontal unique xline(0)  recast(scatter) yscale(range(-1 2)) xscale(range(-0.3 1)) graphregion(color(white)) bgcolor(white) ytitle("") ytitle("") aspectratio(1) name("other_gov") title("Predictive margins of Banda over Female" "for speeches on government operations")

margins r.banda@female, at (senior = 0 Newcomer==1  indep = 0) 
marginsplot, horizontal unique xline(0)  recast(scatter) yscale(range(-1 2)) xscale(range(-0.2 0.8)) graphregion(color(white)) bgcolor(white) ytitle("") aspectratio(1) name("other_gov_dif_bf") title("First Differences between governments" "for speeches on government operations") 

margins r.female@banda, at (senior = 0 Newcomer==1  indep = 0)
marginsplot, horizontal unique xline(0)  recast(scatter) yscale(range(-1 2)) graphregion(color(white)) bgcolor(white) ytitle("") ytitle("") aspectratio(1) name("other_gov_dif") title("First Differences between genders" "for speeches on government operations")


* Agriculture
zinb Topic4 i.banda##i.female senior Newcomer DPP PP MCP indep month0 c.month0#c.month0 if ParSession == 3, inflate(i.banda##i.female senior Newcomer DPP PP MCP indep month0 c.month0#c.month0) cluster(Name_x)
estat ic

*** simulations
margins banda#female, at (senior = 0 Newcomer==1  indep = 0)
marginsplot, horizontal unique xline(0)  recast(scatter) yscale(range(-1 2)) xscale(range(-0.1 0.6)) graphregion(color(white)) bgcolor(white) ytitle("") ytitle("") aspectratio(1) name("other_ag") title("Predictive margins of Banda over Female" "for speeches on the agriculture")

margins r.banda@female, at (senior = 0 Newcomer==1  indep = 0) 
marginsplot, horizontal unique xline(0)  recast(scatter) yscale(range(-1 2)) graphregion(color(white)) bgcolor(white) ytitle("") aspectratio(1) name("other_ag_dif_bf") title("First Differences between governments" "for speeches on the agriculture") 

margins r.female@banda, at (senior = 0 Newcomer==1  indep = 0)
marginsplot, horizontal unique xline(0)  recast(scatter) yscale(range(-1 2)) graphregion(color(white)) bgcolor(white) ytitle("") ytitle("") aspectratio(1) name("other_ag_dif") title("First Differences between genders" "for speeches on the agriculture")


* Transportation
zinb Topic10 i.banda##i.female senior Newcomer DPP PP MCP indep month0 c.month0#c.month0 if ParSession == 3, inflate(i.banda##i.female senior Newcomer DPP PP MCP indep month0 c.month0#c.month0) cluster(Name_x)
estat ic

*** simulations
margins banda#female, at (senior = 0 Newcomer==1  indep = 0)
marginsplot, horizontal unique xline(0)  recast(scatter) yscale(range(-1 2)) xscale(range(-0.1 0.6)) graphregion(color(white)) bgcolor(white) ytitle("") ytitle("") aspectratio(1) name("other_trans") title("Predictive margins of Banda over Female" "for speeches on transportation")

margins r.banda@female, at (senior = 0 Newcomer==1  indep = 0)
marginsplot, horizontal unique xline(0)  recast(scatter) yscale(range(-1 2)) graphregion(color(white)) bgcolor(white) ytitle("") aspectratio(1) name("other_trans_dif_bf") title("First Differences between governments" "for speeches on transportation") 

margins r.female@banda, at (senior = 0 Newcomer==1  indep = 0)
marginsplot, horizontal unique xline(0)  recast(scatter) yscale(range(-1 2)) graphregion(color(white)) bgcolor(white) ytitle("") ytitle("") aspectratio(1) name("other_trans_dif") title("First Differences between genders" "for speeches on transportation")


* Crime
zinb Topic12 i.banda##i.female senior Newcomer DPP PP MCP indep month0 c.month0#c.month0 if ParSession == 3, inflate(i.banda##i.female senior Newcomer DPP PP MCP indep month0 c.month0#c.month0) cluster(Name_x)
estat ic

*** simulations
margins banda#female, at (senior = 0 Newcomer==1  indep = 0)
marginsplot, horizontal unique xline(0)  recast(scatter) yscale(range(-1 2)) xscale(range(-0.1 0.6)) graphregion(color(white)) bgcolor(white) ytitle("") ytitle("") aspectratio(1) name("other_crime") title("Predictive margins of Banda over Female" "for speeches on crime")

margins r.banda@female, at (senior = 0 Newcomer==1  indep = 0)
marginsplot, horizontal unique xline(0)  recast(scatter) yscale(range(-1 2)) graphregion(color(white)) bgcolor(white) ytitle("") aspectratio(1) name("other_crime_dif_bf") title("First Differences between governments" "for speeches on crime") 

margins r.female@banda, at (senior = 0 Newcomer==1  indep = 0)
marginsplot, horizontal unique xline(0)  recast(scatter) yscale(range(-1 2)) graphregion(color(white)) bgcolor(white) ytitle("") ytitle("") aspectratio(1) name("other_crime_dif") title("First Differences between genders" "for speeches on crime")


* Health
zinb Topic3 i.banda##i.female senior Newcomer DPP PP MCP indep month0 c.month0#c.month0 if ParSession == 3, inflate(i.banda##i.female senior Newcomer DPP PP MCP indep month0 c.month0#c.month0) cluster(Name_x)
estat ic

*** simulations
margins banda#female, at (senior = 0 Newcomer==1  indep = 0)
marginsplot, horizontal unique xline(0)  recast(scatter) yscale(range(-1 2)) xscale(range(-0.1 0.6)) graphregion(color(white)) bgcolor(white) ytitle("") ytitle("") aspectratio(1) name("other_health") title("Predictive margins of Banda over Female" "for speeches on health")

margins r.banda@female, at (senior = 0 Newcomer==1  indep = 0)
marginsplot, horizontal unique xline(0)  recast(scatter) yscale(range(-1 2)) graphregion(color(white)) bgcolor(white) ytitle("") aspectratio(1) name("other_health_dif_bf") title("First Differences between governments" "for speeches on health") 

margins r.female@banda, at (senior = 0 Newcomer==1  indep = 0)
marginsplot, horizontal unique xline(0)  recast(scatter) yscale(range(-1 2)) graphregion(color(white)) bgcolor(white) ytitle("") ytitle("") aspectratio(1) name("other_health_dif") title("First Differences between genders" "for speeches on health")



* Housing
zinb Topic14 i.banda##i.female senior Newcomer DPP PP MCP indep month0 c.month0#c.month0 if ParSession == 3, inflate(i.banda##i.female senior Newcomer DPP PP MCP indep month0 c.month0#c.month0) cluster(Name_x)
estat ic

*** simulations
margins banda#female, at (senior = 0 Newcomer==1  indep = 0)
marginsplot, horizontal unique xline(0)  recast(scatter) yscale(range(-1 2)) xscale(range(-0.1 0.6)) graphregion(color(white)) bgcolor(white) ytitle("") ytitle("") aspectratio(1) name("other_housing") title("Predictive margins of Banda over Female" "for speeches on housing")

margins r.banda@female, at (senior = 0 Newcomer==1  indep = 0)
marginsplot, horizontal unique xline(0)  recast(scatter) yscale(range(-1 2)) graphregion(color(white)) bgcolor(white) ytitle("") aspectratio(1) name("other_housing_dif_bf") title("First Differences between governments" "for speeches on housing") 

margins r.female@banda, at (senior = 0 Newcomer==1  indep = 0)
marginsplot, horizontal unique xline(0)  recast(scatter) yscale(range(-1 2)) graphregion(color(white)) bgcolor(white) ytitle("") ytitle("") aspectratio(1) name("other_housing_dif") title("First Differences between genders" "for speeches on housing")


*** Figure A3: Predictive Margins for the topics of Government Operations and Agriculture
gr combine other_gov other_gov_dif_bf other_gov_dif other_ag other_ag_dif_bf other_ag_dif , iscale(0.5) graphregion(color(white)) title("") note("			Note: The 95% confidence intervals are included")

*** Figure A4: Predictive Margins for the topics of Transportation and Crime
gr combine other_trans other_trans_dif_bf other_trans_dif other_crime other_crime_dif_bf other_crime_dif, iscale(0.5) graphregion(color(white)) title("") note("			Note: The 95% confidence intervals are included")

*** Figure A5: Predictive Margins for the topics of Health and Housing
gr combine other_health other_health_dif_bf other_health_dif other_housing other_housing_dif_bf other_housing_dif, iscale(0.5) graphregion(color(white)) title("") note("			Note: The 95% confidence intervals are included")

















